Sunday, July 12, 2015

Me and PKD

I've read probably three quarters of Philip K. Dick's novels and a fair number of his short stories and even some critical pieces about him. He isn't someone I read in my youth--I was more into early twentieth-century pulp, people like HP Lovecraft and Clark Ashton Smith. But in my twenties I knew someone who was doing his dissertation on PKD, so I decided to read along so he's have someone to bounce ideas off of.

That turned out to be a fateful decision. I was sort of reluctant at first--my friend was feeding me a bunch of old, lurid, browning pulp novels, the kind I'd found I almost never liked--usually they were space operas of some sort. And I was more than a little snobbish about reading pulp fiction, I think.

But Man in the High Castle really caught my imagination. Not just the alternative history with Nazis(!), but also the struggles of the schlemiel protagonist, the aesthetic discussions, the vision of everyday life that he creates. It all really worked for me.

But there was something a bit ironic about learning to love PKD through Man in the High Castle, though. In spite of the fact the High Castle won Dick a Hugo Award and put him on a higher plane in the pulp fiction universe, it was generally looked upon by his modern fans as a compromised book: as a book that was far too much influenced by Dick's ambitions for mainstream recognition.

Most of what I'd come to appreciate in Dick was something that most of his celebrants couldn't care less about. What they loved were his concepts and his veritable phantasmagoria of plot elements. His "trippiness" in short.

While I love some of Dick's concepts--psychedelic drugs used to keep Martian colonists going; policing the border between human and android when that border is questionably meaningful; being under deep cover and the corrosive effects this might have on identity; newsclowns; reality television. While I love these concepts, what I see them as is devices to explore cultural, sociological and psychological issues. Not as ends in themselves.

Part of the reason a lot of readers overemphasize the "trippy" aspect of Dick's work is down to Dick himself. Many of his novels prominently feature powerful psychedelic drugs. And toward the end of his career he really reached a point himself where everyday reality was of secondary importance to some higher plane of truth to which he thought he had access (in short, he went crazy). The writings of his out-and-out crazy/religious period is definitive of his entire ouvre for a lot of people. For me, almost everything after Scanner Darkly is nothing but an unfortunate diversion.

Did the crazy PKD live inside the 1963 PKD as some sort of unrealized potential?
Sure, I'd have to say he did--some of Dick's Platonic fixations I'd say always tended toward the pathological. But his early work was always fixed in one way or another in a quotidian reality that he did seem to care quite a bit about.

Later he seemed to care about it only as something to be transcended. Which is where he loses his interest for me.

A lot of PKD fans out there similarly don't care very much about everyday reality. They care about seeming to transcend it. They care about pretentious, empty BS like Spike Jonze movies. They care nothing about something like Kant's aesthetics, which was a big piece of the puzzle for early Dick.

What bought all this on was how completely Dickian I found J. Robert Lennon's Familiar to be and how few other readers seem to have made this connection. Mainly, I suspect, because Lennon is obviously pretty serious about the everyday domestic issues his alternative reality sets in relief for us.

So, if you are a fan of THAT PKD--the one who actually cares about this life after a fashion--let me strongly recommend Familar. A great novel in the best Dick tradition, I think.

Monday, June 15, 2015

Race & the Left, part 2

Now "Political Correctness" is a term that, quite rightfully in most cases where it is used, has come to be mocked. Essentially an extremely vague and useful signifier for those on the right to throw out when they are losing an argument badly, a signifier that invokes our latent resentment of the "Ivory Tower" and those who inhabit it. Our resentment both of their detachment from reality and their ambition to dictate the terms in which we understand it.

I say "our resentment" because I am by no means immune, as is probably obvious. But just because irrational, inarticulate people resent something, we cannot conclude that there is nothing there to resent. There is (or at least was) cause to resent academia. The irrational part of this scenario is that that resentment can so easily be used to shut off thinking on a whole range of issues.

That's not what I'm about.

The term "political correctness" actually emerged in the writing of a person who was generally sympathetic to the causes usually thought to be advanced by the Politically Correct. In New Left circles and publications, the term was used as an offhand way to acknowledge that no one wanted things to go the way of factional orthodoxy. But it was also a tacit recognition that this tendency--the tendency toward an enforced orthodoxy that bore no doubt and no discussion--did, in fact, exist.

As it does in many organizations. But as the market position of the left (poor performance in elections--fewer positions in the state apparatus to occupy) and the leftist intellectual (fewer and fewer ways to make a living as a leftist thinker/writer) declined steeply in the 1980s, the venue for leftist thinking became increasingly dominated by academia. In academia leftist intellectuals spoke mostly to an audience that they had less need to convince and more power to compel (students).

And those students consisted largely of late adolescents who were indifferent to their suasions, anyhow . . . except for the few who longed for some officially sanctioned way to express their Oedipal angst. For these folks, it was easy to make them feel guilty for being like their parents, easy to get them to reject those values, easy to get them to adopt news ones, and easy to get them to strictly enforce the new orthodoxy (or attempt to) amongst their peers. What wasn't easy was to actually get them to think, but that was really superfluous. If not undesirable.

As union grassroots-group influence sank and as academy-trained leftists started becoming the leading new activist lights anyhow, the left more and more reflected the didactic origins of its activists. Important issues were no longer to be discussed. Orthodoxies were to be absorbed. Litanies to be repeated. Heretics to be condemned.

Twenty or so years on from the darkest days of academic exile for the left, where the public sphere and even public policy actually can be influenced by leftist thinking . . . the lack of real thinking in some parts of the leftist agenda and orthodoxy becomes painfully obvious. That's what we see now with the response to Rachel Dolezal.

Race is both a 100% social construction AND something essential to particular people, depending on the exigencies of the day. The same goes for sex and gender. There are plenty of other unresolved contradictions within the regurgitated orthodoxy which almost no one cared about when the left was essentially a political non-entity, but which now look . . . well, embarrassing.

When you need serious thinking about race and all you have on hand is people for whom mouthing the right things about black people is a vehicle for both expiating the guilt for and enjoying being white upper-middle-class people, like a modern-day papal indulgence . . . well, I'm afraid I'm just going to have to be embarrassed.

And when I wonder are black folk going to catch up to the fact that their so-compliant-with-the-line white friends are just condescending to them . . .

Unless they already know and just aren't telling me. Which is OK. Who can say which side I'm on?

Race & the Left

Being a (white) leftist myself, I am often embarrassed by my fellow travelers' attitudes toward African Americans. Not as embarrassed as I would be if I were a Republican, but embarrassed nonetheless.

I think the main thing one has to know about most middle- to upper-middle- class white people between, say, 20 and 60 today is that they grew up in a suburb. I don't have the statistics to prove this, but my experience bears it out. During their childhoods, suburbs were very segregated racially and economically. Through most of their school years they attended schools with a high proportion of people who looked like them and whose economic and social status were quite similar to their family's.

For those who grew up to watch Fox News, their background established a norm against which the rest of their life is judged. To be fair to those on the right, they probably don't explicitly think of their monochromatic childhoods as "the norm," but lots of different people, contexts dominated by different people, different people assuming unfamiliar and symbolically important roles--these things tend to set off their alarm bells, and they usually find other (cultural? technical? procedural?) pretexts to express their alarm. They know darn well that racism and xenophobia aren't nice. They don't like to think of themselves as racist or xenophobic. They honestly believe they aren't. It's just they don't pursue the matter with even the slightest rigor.

So far, so not-particularly interesting.

Those that grew up to love Rachel Maddow are a different, and altogether more complicated case. Or set of cases, I should say.

And I guess I should also say that I am both in and out of this category of white liberals. I am IN it insofar as I'm a white guy who has been afforded many of the privileges of white guys tend to take for granted in this world: a decent primary education; teachers who expected a lot of me, who assumed I'd be a leader and treated me that way; parents who had high expectations of me and who were willing to make considerable sacrifices betting on my future; and as I got older the ungrudging acceptance by those in authority that I would become one of them eventually. I am now older and more or less a part of the institutional power structure. And I am a liberal who is quite sensitive to the fact that not everyone gets the chances that I got, and not everyone is prepared as well as I was to exploit the opportunities that I got.

And I have a bit of distance from this category of white upper-middle class liberals because I didn't grow up in the suburbs. My family wasn't upper-middle-class. My schools weren't, on the whole, very good. (Every public school I attended (grades 3-8, 10-12) was ranked in the lowest quintile in the state on standardized tests.) And most of the opportunities I got were not given to me because I was a white boy. They were given to me grudgingly because my mother was the pain-in-the-ass from hell as far as teachers and school administrators were concerned. She was convinced I was the boy genius, that I was going to college, that I was going to be a doctor or a lawyer or something similar. And she damn well wasn't going to let me slip through the cracks of the school system like my four siblings did.

My father played right along--teaching me to read when I was barely much more than a toddler, responding to every bit of idle curiosity with piles of encyclopedia entries (he bought three sets), and passing along intellectual rigor as a way of life.

None of those four siblings received a high-school diploma. Several of them ended up in institutions at one or more points in their lives. My extended family has a long and interesting history with law enforcement and a rather spotty history with the educational system.

Thus I looked upon my privileges as gifts bestowed upon me by my parents, not privileges that were afforded to me merely because I was white. My siblings, after all, were also white. The big difference between me and them was a mother who had learned well from hard experience and a (different) father who brought a set of values and a level of dedication worlds away from theirs.

That's a rather different experience that most of my suburban-bred cohorts.

The schools and neighborhoods I grew up with also meant that I grew up amongst a great deal more diversity than they did. Where a lot of suburban schools had a very small number of blacks and Hispanics, and maybe a good representation from one Asian country, my classes at school were very diverse indeed. If you were white, native-born and English was spoken at home, you were in a minority in many of my classes. African Americans were a significant presence in my schools from 7th grade up and I had a chance to become acquainted with, befriend, play with and fight with black kids.

(Fighting: Where and when I come from, fights in and around school were commonplace, and ANY new boy or new group of boys had to be sorted into the pecking order. Thus when I was 8 I moved from one neighborhood to another in Philadelphia. I ended up in the office about 40 times that first year in my new school for fighting. Granted, I was somewhat unusual in my reluctance to back down from a fight, but this gives you a fair picture of the general atmosphere. There were MANY interracial fights in my schools, most of which were not primarily motivated by race (though, of course, it factored in heavily).)

So, by the time I got to college, dealing with black folk was relatively normal for me. NOT to say it was just the same a dealing with the Italian guys I knew. Racism was a huge factor and a huge rift between whites and blacks. Though my family was tolerant and, in fact, vocally anti-racist, the fact of the matter was that plenty of the white people around me were quite racist. And any black person dealing with a white person in my neighborhood would be stupid to assume that person wasn't racist. And you, as a white guy, had to know that any black person you dealt with probably assumed you were a racist and probably was more than ready to hate your guts. It made for some pretty tense dealings, but it could be overcome to a certain extent. That background never went away, though.

When I got to college and later went on to university I began to see what was to me a new phenomenon: white people who had NEVER really dealt with a black person from the city. Maybe there were a few black folk back in high school--the children of a black teacher hired in an affirmative action program, or maybe a stray doctor or business owner who had moved into the school district to give his kids a leg up or maybe, if they were lucky, some folks from an historic black suburban enclave. But for the most part these black folk were thoroughly assimilated into the upper-middle class world they inhabited. While they may not have had all the opportunities and may have put up with more hurtful bullshit than their white peers, they were a world away from their ghetto-rasied peers.

My undergraduate institution was quite different from my previous experience. First it was only about half the size of my high school (2500 vs. 5000). Second, hardly anyone there came from an urban public school. I think there were about 10 kids in my entering class who had grown up in a city and maybe 5 of those had gone to the regular public school in their city. Nearly everyone at the school came from very nice, very white suburban public or private schools from places in New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island and Massachusetts.

They were generally complacent, if not contented, and conservative. The faculty, who large came from the same background but who mostly came up in the 60s and early seventies, absolutely despised the student body and its politics. The usual stance assumed by the faculty was that they knew exactly where we came from, and knew precisely what our moral failings were. In vast majority of cases they were right, but for a city kid who, but for a sick Mom would have gone to Berkeley (in the laughably naive hope that it was still the Berkeley of Do It) their condescension was infuriating.

The typical faculty ploy during any discussion that touched on the big social and political issues of the day was to use the suffering of urban blacks and people of color worldwide as a way of eliciting guilt, and on this guilt they built a following. Because no one particularly *likes* feeling guilty. Guilt in most people creates a pretty strong motivation to somehow expiating that guilt. If the guilt is about something truly bad and something that one is to blame for and one is able to do something about, then the way to expiate it is to eliminate the cause of the guilt. This was where the white freedom riders came from: they saw an injustice in their land, they felt the pain of its being there and they acted stop it. They transformed their guilt into a sense of mission: to give black people the basic rights that they thought should be afforded to any person.

But that had been done. Blacks now voted in Alabama and ate at formerly whites only lunch counters in Mississippi. That didn't mean they were getting a fair chance at the "American Dream" of justly rewarded hard work.

And to make things rather more complicated, the people who were hectoring us about the plight of the African American and the privileges afforded to whites had all landed themselves pretty cozy positions in that world of privilege which they had absolutely no intention of giving up. Any reasonable accounting of who had undeserved privilege in 1986 would fairly soon come to the door of tenured liberal arts faculty. Besides, none of those guilty students actually felt guilty enough to give up anything serious. What was wanted was symbolic, rather than material expiation. Expiation through the forms of faith rather than through good acts. And those forms came to be known in the 1990s as "Political Correctness."

to be continued

Sunday, June 14, 2015

Rachel Dolezal and Race

Race is a pretty complex issue. Race in the United States is both complicated and contentious. Race in the United States today is complicated, contentious and tied up with deep running issues of personal identity.

The Rachel Dolezal case is more or less tailor-made to bring out the bitterness surrounding race in the United States. Coming so soon after all the righteous chest-beating on the left in the post Bruce>Caitlyn Jenner excitement, it was bound to get a lot of attention from those on the right eager to show how hypocritical those on the left can be.

And when it comes to morals and moralism, the left can indeed by quite hypocritical, self-righteous and self-contradictory. If Caitlyn Jenner MUST be accepted as a woman, the right asked, Why MUST Rachel Dolezal's claim to be black be mocked and condemned?

And it is not a bad question.

Mind, there are loads of differences in the two cases. For one thing, Dolezal has not been open at all about her "transition." Jenner has come out, announced his longstanding feelings about his gender identity and very publicly announced his transition to Caitlyn. All well and good, no one was deceived any more than Jenner was confused by his struggles with his gender identity.

Dolezal has hidden her true background, lied about it, actually. And she's been able to take advantage of the ignorance & confusion she's created.

So, there's a big difference between someone essentially hoodwinking everyone and someone struggling with their identity.

But let us imagine if Dolezal had, at some point long previous to 2015, come out and said she identified as black and intended to assume that as her racial/ethnic/cultural identity. It is clear from the comments of many on the left that they would be no more accepting of a straightforward Dolezal becoming black as they would of Dolezal the fraud. Why is this?

One notion that's been bouncing around, initially put forward by Dolezal's brother, is that Dolezal's personification is "blackface." Dolezal's adopted brother is black, and I'm sure he was under a lot of pressure to come up with some kind of reaction to Rachel's outing, but calling what Rachel has done "blackface" is dumb. Blackface performers were KNOWN TO BE WHITE by their audiences--that was the whole point. And they enacted a vision of blackness which was humiliating and degrading to blacks.

The whole point of Dolezal's performance is that no one should know who she really is. And rather than seeking to humiliate and degrade black people, she seems to honestly identify with them and has sought to advance their causes. Fraud is not nice, but it isn't anything remotely like blackface.

The whole Dolezal fiasco has many on the left, many far more experienced in the public sphere than young Ezra Dolezal, writhing about trying to square the circle of their contradictory positions on race and identity.

How is it, we must wonder, if race is a social construction that it is "absolutely impossible" for a white woman to assume the identity of a black woman? Or, if you've suddenly become a racial essentialist in the face of Dolezal, given that it is "absolutely impossible" for a white woman to assume the identity of a black woman, how come no one noticed Dolezal's ruse until her father outed her?

Her fraud aside, Dolezal has done us a service. She's thrown a light on to the fact that for all the self-righteousness, false displays of ritualized guilt, and venomous attacks on those who stray even a whisker from the orthodoxy, the left's identity politics is just a contradictory rag bag of ad-hoc theorizing to justify a large set of left-consensual knee-jerk reactions. All of that moral fulminating has little behind it aside from "because we say so, damn it! And we may have said the opposite thing a few days ago, but so fucking what!" Hannity couldn't have said it better himself.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Boingboing kindly covers our ears

Had a pretty interesting experience over at boingboing's bulletin board a couple of weeks ago. Full disclosure, the experience ends with me getting banned, but so it goes sometimes.

What I found interesting was the norms of the conversation. I am a longtimer on the Internets. I first tooled around on the Internet about the same time as the world wide web came into being. I distinctly remember the www as pretty much a text-based (not graphics-based) realm. I was there when Mosaic first came out. I saw the usenet rise and fall under a blizzard of spam.

Long before that I did a wee bit of coding (BASIC and Pascal, which, bizarrely, I still get to use) and floated around on the periphery of real hacker circles. But anyhow, I've been around the virtual block a time or two.

The Internet I am used to, and the one I thought boingboing was built up from, had free expression as a more-or-less central tenet. It was a dearly held belief that being able to say what you thought was, ultimately, a good thing for the conversation and a good thing for everyone involved, even if what you thought was wrong or misguided or looked down upon.

Now I know all about the controversies that have swirled around the notions of civility and anonymity and abuse on the internet. There have been and usually are some pretty bad abuses of free expression on the Internet. But those have not outweighed the upside of having freewheeling discussions where people are willing to argue for unpopular points of view.

Boingboing's bulletin board has taken a decided swing away from these values. The board is moderated with a pretty heavy hand, with many sorts of expression, such as insults, racism, sexism and "being annoying" being at least supposedly banned. Effectively this gives the moderators a great deal of latitude to pretty much ban anyone they don't like. And they exercise this power pretty freely.

In an ideal world this would lead to a more civil and more enlightening discussion. But at boingboing this is not the case.

For instance, compare any conversation on the boingboing bulletin board with, say, a controversial topic on scienceblogs. On scienceblogs commenters have a great deal more latitude. Does that make for a less enlightening and interesting discussion?

The answer is pretty clear--take a look at a pretty contentious conversation at scienceblogs versus the struggle to articulate an alternative to the consensus at boingboing. Granted, the race issue brings out people who really just want to express aggression and not think, but there is a complete failure on the part of the moderators to see that that tendency toward aggression exists on both the contrarian and the consensus sides.

In those boingboing comments, anyone who questions the merit of the cartoon that is the subject of the post, or who questions the terminology used is either outright called a racist or faces statements that are more or less "I'm not calling you a racist, but anyone who would say what you just said must be a racist."

Such statements are blithely ignored by the moderator. As are stock PC putdowns like "manslaining." But if you (redundantly) call the person who says these things a self-righteous jackass you pretty much immediately get banned.

Oddly, many of these folks seem to have completely forgotten where they first heard about things like "white privilege" and "manslaining." When I brought up the academic origins of these terms there were howls of denial . . . perhaps folks don't realize that many of these terms were coined & first propagated in academic papers, but I really find it difficult to believe that even people who have completely assimilated such notions don't remember that they first heard them and used them at school.

But what is most surprising is how boingboing, which I'd always thought of as as strong defender of the benefits of free expression, has embraced the tightly controlled model of classroom speech and has grown intolerant of anything like give-and-take on sensitive issues like this one. I don't think it benefits anyone. Not those who now don't have to be offended by someone who dares to disagree with what passes for consensus in their circles. Not those unprivileged who are supposedly being protected. Not those who might want to actually think about the issues surrounding race and how they might best be articualted. Not boingboing.

Sunday, March 08, 2015


I am reading an old book at the moment: Paul Krugman's Pop Internationalism. I often find that "in the moment" books like this one (Pop Internationalism's moment is probably 1994 or so) are really valuable reads later on if they're written by people who really know their stuff. Like reading Habermas on the socio-economic transition of the 1970s. It doesn't have the benefit of temporal perspective, but it does have a better connection to the lived experience, and folks like Krugman and Habermas provide a lot of interesting perspective just in how they contextualize an issue.

Krugman was in an interesting place in the early 1990s--he was respected, he had written some very good economics on trade, he was a good writer, and he was a liberal. But he found himself feeling like an outsider as the Clinton administration geared up in 92/93.
"My epiphany came at that famous economic summit in Little Rock in 1992," Krugman said. "A lot of stuff said there was clearly silly. I had been aware that pop economics writers had a much bigger audience than good economists. But I did not take that seriously because I thought that anyone who really mattered would know the difference. That turned out not to be the case."
Several of the major tenets of the economists pushing Clinton's domestic policy, were, according to Krugman, completely false. Demonstrably false. In fact, well known to be false among other economists.

What is surprising is how much traction the bullshit view (that trade was the major cause of America's economic dulldrums) could get in the face of the fact that it couldn't really justify itself to anyone with even a little skepticism. In fact, Krugman, who was representing mainstream economics against the champions of wishful thinking (Lester Thurow, among many others), gets labelled a "contrarian" in the supposedly sophisticated policy press.

Groupthink in action? I've seen it myself--executives who take a "facts don't matter, this is what we're doing" approach (though they don't have the honesty or courage to say that, of course), but it is interesting, and pretty scary, to see it taking place at the highest levels.

I am reminded of the ascendancy of Henry Kissinger, who rose as an academic as the hot young foreign policy realist, but when he started to make his way in Washington he started advocating and championing completely un-realistic foreign policies and pretending they were realistic by constantly making reference to "credibility" as a justification. It was kind of an intellectual black hole.

People who fear technocrats can be reassured--experts are only in Washington as window dressing. No one listens to actual expertise.

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

The Phillies: What Happened?

Along with a thoughtful bent and a funny name, another legacy of mine is Phillies fandom.

Which, historically has been something like inheriting a proclivity for corns, but lately has been pretty sweet, actually. The Phillies had a decent run there: Win the division as the Mets(!) collapse in 2007, win it all in 2008, the pennant in 2009, then a series of win-now trades that didn't get them the win, the sudden decline of a few key players and . . . now we start over.

A lot of Phillies fans are more than a little disappointed with this run. Phillies fans have always had a soft spot for the Red Sox. Sox fans experienced a lot of the "close but no cigar" sort of frustration, whereas the Phillies fan spent the vast majority of the twentieth century watching a team that was more or less a mockery of a professional baseball organization. But they had the frustration in common. Along with the proud urban ethnic tradition. And the urban ethnic racism and teams that pandered to it. And the reddish caps (for a little while). And, most of all, the absolute, unyielding hatred of New York.

So Phillies fans today look at the Red Sox and see a team that is still on a run of competitiveness that started back in the 1990s (since 1998, they've had two losing seasons), with occasional years off to retool. Why can't the Phillies do this? Why are the Phillies now in the midst of a multi-year rebuild?

Part of it is probably just luck. the Red Sox made a couple of bets on their big slow slugger (David Ortiz) and won. In fact they won beyond even the sanguine hopes of Red Sox fans--Ortiz has aged better than anyone expected. The Phils made a similar bet on theirs (Ryan Howard) and about as spectacularly lost.

Part of it is also how the teams decided to proceed after their initial world series win. The Red Sox remained committed to a philosophy which dealt out long-term contracts very reluctantly and tried very hard to keep contracts in the realm where the player could conceivably return value by standard measurements of such things. Thus Ortiz has spent his prime making 13-15 million a year. Howard now makes $25 million.

Even for a rich team such a contract going toward a now unproductive player is a hit.

And the Red Sox philosophy had other effects other than not overpaying for David Ortiz. he is the only Red Sock to be on all three of their recent World Series teams. Only six others were on the first two. Only three others were on both the second two. And even Ortiz might well have gone had he insisted on being overpayed. He'd have found someone outside of Boston who'd have done it, and Boston probably would not have matched.

The Red Sox seldom seem to convince themselves that they need a particular player. They are willing to let anyone go, and they end up letting a lot of people walk or trading a lot of people. There's very little continuity on the team, but there's very little other than on-field return in their calculations.

The Phillies took a very different approach . . .

I am, as a fan, rooting for an organization whose philosophies are diametrically opposed to my own, not only as to the question of whether you succeed, but as to the question of how you succeed. I like to watch young players grow and develop into stars, as I watched Amos Otis and George Brett and Frank White and Dennis Leonard. I take pleasure in seeing what they can do one year that they couldn’t the year before; this is what, as a fan, I enjoy. --Bill James, 1985 Baseball Abstract

Philadelphia owner Ruly Carpenter, realizing that Pete Rose at thirty-eight is no longer a player who can decide a pennant race, originally refused to pay what Pete Rose was asking. But the TV station that carries the Phillies, concerned not with ability but with marketability, came up with the dough . . . Bill James, Esquire magazine, 1979 

I direct your attention to these two passages from Bill James to establish two points: 1) That fans can have interests that run counter to the best strategy for a team to win. Even Bill James, one of the godfathers of baseball analysis, watches the game, in part, to watch the play and development of personalities he's become familiar with and fond of. Even highly analytical fans like stability and the continuity of a story; 2) The business side of baseball is not just about statistical analysis of on-field performance. It's about what sells. Winning sells, yes, but other things sell as well.

When the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, ownership made a decision to make it a priority to keep together the core--Rollins, Utley, Howard & Hamels--they had drafted and developed. Part of this was because they were a compelling group for the Philadelphia market. Unusually, there were two African-American stars amongst them. And there was a hard-nosed white guy (Utley). Ownership essentially decided that *this* Phillies team was not only a winner on the field, but a highly marketable group of personalities as well.

And Philadelphia is a town that loves its stories more than most. The 1993 Phillies are probably still the team the fans hold closest to their hearts. Not because they won it all (they didn't) but because their working-class fratboy demeanor and their seemingly never-ending series of come-from-behind runs--jibed precisely with the city's identity as overlooked, underappreciated and (frogive my French) declasse.

But dedicating yourself so strongly to keeping particular players often means overpaying for them--giving them longer, bigger contracts than their on-field performance really commands. So Ryan Howard's contract wasn't just a bit of insanity on the part of the General Manager. That contract was part of an ownership-level decision to make stability in core personnel a very high priority for the team.

This policy decision, combined with bad luck (Howard, Halliday), win-now trades that didn't entirely pan out (Lee, Halliday, Hunter Pence) and a couple of plain stupid trades (Hunter Pence II, Lee II) and you've got yourself a long rebuild.

On top of this, the Phillies, for some inexplicable reason, seemed to strongly believe that they could see something in or do something to athletic high-schoolers to make them pan out as major leaguers at an appreciably higher rate than usual. They were wrong about this as well, so they ended up taking a lot of long bets with draft choices they should have been expending on safer bets (successful college players).

Ruben Amaro certainly has to take some of the blame for all of this. His old-school mentality probably lent directly to the failed draft strategy of the past 5 years or so, and that old-school mentality really does have to be relegated to the dustbin. Explicitly and emphatically. A couple of Amaro's salary dump trades were just atrocious in terms of return. But MOST of the Phillies problem is down to bad luck and a policy of lineup stability that just didn't work.

But I have to say, in spite of its failure, I'm glad the Phillies did keep that core together for so long. Like Bill James, even if analysis teaches us that letting familiar faces go early and bringing in strangers probably would have made the team better and more resilient, it is a lesson I find hard to enjoy.